USD/CAD (+90)

market is not moving lower in September, after all the talk about historically being bad. Oil is making some gains, but it is very fast do drop 50 cents, and than it takes long time to gain it. Today's data for the Looney is positive, so it gave some prop to the currency (RMPI m/m 2.2% vs. 0.6%), but we don't expect for these gains to hold. Risk aversion is always around the corner, and we understand that USD is not the favorite currency, but in this pair, we expect some gains, because it looks like it is the best to buy USD against CAD. Tomorrow we have Canadian GDP m/m data, and it is expected to be negative (-0.1%, previous month was 0.2%)so should be no real interest for CAD.

GBP/USD (-62)

with the positive news for the U.K.(Current account -7.4 vs -9.6 & GDP 1.2% as expected) we saw good bounce in GBP across the board. At the same time market jumped on comments from ECB executive board member Jurgen Stark "Euro area passed a turning point and moving towards credit growth". Even after all this data and comment, market managed to take some profits and to come down to 1.5830 area where we judged it is a good area to jump on the move higher. Market already hit high for today 1.5895 (January Low 2010 )and further rise is expected. S&P futures are in the positive territory as well as European markets for now what should help our trade. Stops are placed at 1.5770 and target is 1.5990.

USD/JPY (-26)

with the USD loosing ground against all currencies it is only natural that USD/JPY heads lower again. This comes to complete and total dissatisfaction of Japanese finance ministry as it did intervene last week to stop appreciation of it's currency. Today, in FT,Mr. Kan reiterated how important it is for Japan for JPY not to appreciate, and they will do more in order to stop it. This trade is based on Japanese commitment to curb JPY appreciation. Even from technical perspective on 1h chart, 200 sma poses as target for bears, and stochastic is in overbought level. Stops are placed at 84.25 and profit target at 86.20

USD/JPY (-64)

with the strong JPY move across the board and 10yr yield actually moving higher, we believe that move will not be sustainable for this pair. DXY (u.s. dollar index) moved lower as well and reached oversold levels. Market is moving higher in Asia, Europe, and currently in US gains are about 0.5% without any new economic data. Market is still moving on China and Basel news, and taking risk on approach. If we truly have risk on sentiment we should see JPY losses, but still it is not the case. Major moves were on a US Dollar weakness, which again, we believe is overdone, and we are due for a move higher on this pair. Weekly chart shows the divergence on a price and a doji on a previous week candle. We don't anticipate much more USD weakness,but upside surprise on USD data tomorrow, and we do anticipate JPY sale across the board.

EUR/USD (-50)

with more and more talk in media about European sovereign crisis, and banks without proper capitalization, EUR will not be able to gain against almost any currency, particularly against "safe haven currencies JPY, EUR, and USD". Bond spreads between PIIGS and German is steadily increasing, and EUR is paying the price. Since political tension are increasing in Japan, and SNB saying that they might be forced to step in forex market, we think that is the best to short it with USD. Friday better than expected job report definitely goes in favor of the trade. From technical perspective, Head and Shoulders pattern is evident in 4h chart, combined with Simple Moving Averages and lower highs, looks like great opportunity to short the pair. Targets are set at 1.2615, and stops placed at 1.2775

USD/CAD (+150)

with Canada Central Bank expected to raise interest rates to 1%, and U.S. providing better than expected job report on Friday, it is reasonable to expect strong movement in CAD favor. European debt crisis and the concern for the stability of European banks is the main driver of USD move higher and of the latest "flight to safety" lift the pair up to 1.0475 from 1.0345. As far as the further move up, we think that is the less likely option in this pair, and the bulls had plenty of chances for that since pair made it's potential high for the day (1.0488).From technical perspective we have 100 and 50 SMA serve as resistance,as well as 50% fib retracement, and MACD is well bellow water line indicating downtrend. Risk is relatively small compared with profit opportunity. Stops are placed at 1.0525, and target is 1.0345 and possible 1.0265 if market moves strongly in CAD favor and if rates are lifted to 1% & building permits as well as IVEY PMI mark better than expected results.

EUR/USD (+24)

long on the US job report. Stop at 1.2770, target 1.2930. Support at 50sma should hold