2010 profit + 1179, 2011 + 971

2010 January +236, February +22, March +190, April +198, May +607, June +63, July 0, August -50, September +62, October -240, November +114, December 0,


2011 January +388, February - 80, March 0, April -114, May 0, June -15, July +433, August 0, September +260, October +253, December -154


2012 January +365, February 0, March +236, April +203, May 0, June 0, July





TRADING FOREX MARKET

The fact is that pattern exist is evidence of price manipulation, which in turn creates predictability that produces profitability for those who can see the patterns.

Greggory L. Morris

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

EUR/SEK (-600 pip value 0.14, actual -85)


the pair is clearly trending lower, and the trade is VERY risky. In a same way we all know that without a risk there is no gain, so what is represented in this trade is good risk/benefit ratio. EUR is in downtrend and many of the players on the market are in this trade for some time. 200 SMA would be the good target for many of them to exit the trade and book some profits, and pair is in oversold level for some time. There is no expectation that pair would completely reverse direction, but 200 SMA on a weekly chart, slow stochastic in oversold level for some time (daily chart) indicate that everybody in this pair is short. It is common in this business that sharp bounce happens when there is no more sellers, because they are already in a trade, and at meaningful barrier many of them start jumping ship (taking profit)
Stops should be placed bellow 200 SMA, and profit targets should start at 9.8000 and 9.8800 should be reached and strong bounce.

Friday, February 19, 2010

EUR/CHF (-62)


trade is based on technicals of RSI divergence with price, SNB intervention zone, and maybe some overbought levels of EUR. Main reason is the intervention of the SNB. In this case stops should be based on the risk tolerance, but certainly bellow 1.4600 and profit targets should start at about recent high of last intervention 1.4750.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

USD/SEK (+2554 pip value 0.14, actual +364)


this is very simple trade, and yes they do exist. It is a long term trade (weeks) and is founded on the continuation of the USD strength on the FX market until at least 1Q, and SEK is the currency that should provide the most bang for the buck. Stops bellow 7.0000, and profit targets to start at 7.4000. RSI shows the support of the recent (December) rise of the dollar

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

EUR/NOK (-150 pip value 0.17, actual -25)


after days and weeks of losses euro was overdue for some retracement on the market. Even though there is nothing new about Euro plan for PIGS ( Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain)market is recording gains in Asia, as well as in Europe today. Oil claimed another 1.11% gains on risk appetite of traders, but it's gains might be contained for the U.S. session. For the third day pair was unable to break any lower as traders are reluctant to sell to sell any more Euro's. Stops are recomended bellow 8.0300, and profit targets are to be placed at 8.0650 and above.

Monday, February 15, 2010

EUR/JPY (+149)


lately this pair was not favored to go long by any means, but in the start of the new trading week we can expect some changes. Euro is oversold for while now across the board, and that is no secret. Talks about Greece are continuing but are offering little or no info about any concrete action.Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on 1h chart, and if pair gives the opportunity to go long it would be very beneficial, with tight stops. Inverse Head & Shoulder patter once it is formed it suppose to extend the shoulder for the same number of pips as there is from head to shoulder. Entrance in a trade is dependent on risk tolerance.
Targets in this case would be 124.00 and above, stops should be placed bellow left shoulder (bellow 122.00)

Thursday, February 11, 2010

CAD/CHF (-85)


cad overshoot runs into 78.6 fib. retracement on a weekly chart (1.0697 - 0.8497) This sudden move up is due for a retracement and stop is very small, so this particular trade is worth the risk from cost-benefit point. Stop at 1.0280 and limit targets are 10130 with the trailing stop once the point is reached.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

AUD/CHF (+103)


weekly and daily chart support move higher from current levels. On a daily chart support is provided by 100 day simple moving average, and on a weekly support is 200 day simple moving average and 21 day exponential moving average. Trade moto; follow the trend. Because of upcoming events (NY open and Bernanke testimony) stops are set bellow 92.50 and first targets to start at 94.50

p.s. Swiss National Bank really doesn't like when CHF appriciate.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

EUR/CAD (-46)


with Euro prospect limited to technical retracements and only fundamental in focus is question "is Europe going to help Greece" euro does not stand ground to gain very much. Canadian Looney (CAD) is becoming resiliant to falling oil after GDP reports and employment data we could conclude that continuation of the pattern will continue. Stop above 1.4700 and targets to start at 1.4600 and bellow, with last target at 1.4500

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

CHF/JPY (-189)


as the markets are showing resilience on China tightening and PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) basket troubles, and indicies are pocketing some gains, it is "safe" to conclude that risk is on again. Currency that loves to loose when risk appetite is one the market should not disappoint this time either. Mountain economy currency keeps on appreciating to dissatisfaction of it's parent (SNB) but after their recent FX intervention, we should not expect one for at least couple of months. . Stops bellow the trading range and targets toward the top of the trading range. This is one of the chart that amazes with it's simplicity. I added the Slow Stochastic as a reassurance in a move higher.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

AUD/USD (-102)


After the decision from RBA to leave interest rates at 3.75 pair was unable to blast through previous day low, but instead it quickly retreated to 0.8800 where it stayed for couple of hours. Even after Euro market opening and initial drop in equities par remained firm. Daily chart shows support from Dec 23, 2009 which still serves as support for the Long positions. With recent gains in Dow (1.17%), Nikkei (1.63%), and euro markets on the raise it is reasonable to expect move up with stops starting bellow 0.8733 and profit targets to start setting up north from previous day high (0.8918)
Slow Stockastics are supporting the move up.