2010 profit + 1179, 2011 + 971

2010 January +236, February +22, March +190, April +198, May +607, June +63, July 0, August -50, September +62, October -240, November +114, December 0,


2011 January +388, February - 80, March 0, April -114, May 0, June -15, July +433, August 0, September +260, October +253, December -154


2012 January +365, February 0, March +236, April +203, May 0, June 0, July





TRADING FOREX MARKET

The fact is that pattern exist is evidence of price manipulation, which in turn creates predictability that produces profitability for those who can see the patterns.

Greggory L. Morris

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

EUR/JPY -51


trade set up is based on technical perspective. Slow Stochastic are crossing on 4h chart and indicating on move higher, and Fib. retracement of 110.73( 50%)of (113.40 - 108.06 move)should serve as support. US markets are indicating higher open and that factor should go in favor of our trade. Last week low is at 110.85, and that should be additional support. Keep in mind that most of the markets are in risk aversion mode, so move lower would not be surprising. Risk to reward looks good, so the trade is worth it. Stops should be lower than recent lows and support levels. (bellow 110.60), and targets should be 112.00 and higher.
Watch out for USD news (new home sales), only better than expected would boost the Euro, otherwise we are going to find out how solid is the current "floor" in this pair.

Friday, June 18, 2010

AUD/USD -60



there is a lot of talk how "risk on" is coming back on the market, but it is not very convincing so far this week. AUD/USD rallied in the beginning of the week but after the initial rally on Sunday/Monday it gained only 35 pips since. This being a Friday, and taking how market participants don't like to stay open on days of uncertainty I would say that we might encounter some profit taking on this pair, and the reasons for this are; USDX already had a decent pullback from it's highs recently so some of the market players are gonna play it safe over the weekend, indicators are showing divergence on price level, and the final is; what is the reason that market would rally on? Euro market showed that after opening gains it is not willing to take it any further just now, and Asian session did just that, closing it close to flat. Final reminder is that VIX is still at 25 ( it is going down, but it is not making giant steps). This morning there is no US data. Stops should be above 0.8750 and targets at 0.8620

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

EUR/USD -83


with the markets rallying for about 2 days on "improvement of the sentiment" or we can also say successful bond sale from Spanish central bank, and completely disregarding data that was coming out (NZD retail sales -0.3%, German ZEW econ. sentiment- ultra low 28.7,USD- Empire state manuf. index 19.6.....etc)All major currencies rallied against USD and JPY, but not that much for the last trading session in Asia, although equity market gained in excess of one percent across asian markets (Nikkei +1.8%)This looks like a good reason to sell other currencies and buy USD and JPY, and best pair to do it on now is EUR/USD. Selling the weakest against strongest.Stops should be above 200 Simple moving Average, and targets should start at 1.2180 and much lower in case more bad news from Eurozone.

Monday, June 14, 2010

AUD/JPY -21


with this trade we have to keep in mind that Asian markets marked gains on average 1.4%, and European session is following its footsteps so far. US open (FX) is bit more than half hour away, and so far it's posting gains +50 on Dow Jones & +8 on S&P, so there is a danger of continuation of a trend. Trade is primarily driven by technical divergence on MACD, and Monthly resistance at 79.19 of March Low. Pair gained about 100 pips in Asia, and about 25 in Europe so far, what gives us the clue that not everybody is ready to jump into risk (AUD) just yet. It looks improvement of the sentiment on the market is not ready to rally Aussie too far, but in case that risk aversion breaks the party, we could expect serious sell off. Stops should start well above march low's 79.19, and targets should start bellow 78.20 and in the case of falling equities at 77.10

Monday, June 7, 2010

USD/JPY +135


risk aversion is in play in European markets (currently down about -1.2%), as it was in Asia (Nikkei -3.84%) and US futures are pointing on lower opening. Pair bounced of 200 Simple Moving Average in Asia, and it is showing unwillingness to go any higher. Slow Stochastic are about to cross for the move lower, possibly going through 200 SMA on another bear run, and targets should be 89.30, and stops above recent highs and fib retracement at 92.80

Thursday, June 3, 2010

EUR/CHF +92


most recent data from Europe indicates of lower retail sales (-1.2% vs. 0.1% expectation) could be the catalyst for the EUR/CHF to start drifting lower toward 1.4000. With the most recent intervention from SNB being at 1.4000 it should be prudent to place profit targets at 1.4050, and stops should be placed above recent highs and 100 Simple Moving Average.
Caution is advised on a strong bounce from 1.4124 (78.6% retracement from 1.4587 - 1.40008 move on a daily chart)

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

USD/CAD +81


BOC yesterday raised int. rate by 0.25% and that is by no means negative for the CAD, although it did drop after the announcement across the board because of dovish statement from BOC following the announcement. With risk aversion very much present throughout the markets caution is advised in buying CAD & selling USD. From technical prospective it is clear that pair is unable for couple of days to go through resistance at 1.0560-ish. Simple moving averages also clearly define support/resistance at certain levels, and particularly to pay attention at 50 SMA above which one stops should be placed and targets should be placed at 1.0450 and bellow.200 SMA looks like ultimate target.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

EUR/GBP (-30)


with the recent positive news for the Euro ( German unemployment Change 7.7% vs 7.8) could give boost to EUR/GBP pair. In adition to fundamental news, RSI indicator is showing divergence in price. Targets should be at 85.40 and stops should be placed below 84.05