AUD/CAD (+106)

as the oil started marking gains on the market, so did the CAD against most of the currencies. With the downtrend in place it is reasonable to expect the continuation with the wind in CAD back. This play of the simple moving averages tells the story of continuation of the downside for the pair. Previous crossovers of these two mov. aver. resulted in huge moves. Recent move up was stopped at 50 SMA (orange line), and crossover of 100 & 200 moving averages marks the signal for the move lower. Stops should be above 100 SMA and February 26 high 0.9475 , with the MUST close above it to break the downtrend, and profit targets should start at 92.00 and below. Close bellow 92.00 on a weekly chart would open the doors for the move lower.

NZD/CHF (+74)

with the NZD getting the jump start from Nikkei (closed at 11.165 or +2.3%)market clearly favored NZD across the board. NZD gains were from Risk appetite in Asia it took pair out of the "comfort zone" of 0.7665 - 0.7290 that pair was trapped since October. Just as the gains were made, they can be lost, at the same speed, since there were no data from New Zeland or Switzerland. Price action created divergence on RSI, and as the resistance we have on weekly chart 200 SMA what is on 78.05. Stops should start above that level and targets should start at 77.10.

AUD/JPY (+143)

with the market staying resilient toward news from Greece (except eur pairs) we could expect another wave of buying commodities currencies (AUD,NZD,CAD) On 1h chart we can see formation of inverse head & shoulders formation what from technical stand point is bullish formation. With a weekly low of April 3rd, 2010 85.27 serving as a support, stops should be placed bellow (mind the spikes low) Targets should be placed above 87.50 and if taking Head & Shoulders patter for the full effect it should be placed above 88.00
AUD suffered earlier from RBA Gov. Stevens speech what was perceived as dovish (less optimistic speech than it was expected)

NOK/JPY (-2240 pip value 0.01, actual -22)

with risk aversion taking place on the market and oil heading lower, one of the ways to short commodities currencies that is connected with oil is NOK with JPY that traditionally takes role of the safe haven currency. Market are heading lower since Asia, Europe, and US market just opened 0.5% lower. Slow Stochastic are pointing for a move down. Stops should be placed above the recent day highs, and profit targets should start at about 15.300 and lower. Focus should be on movement of the indicies (S&P, DJ, Nikkei 225, FTSE, DAX...) and movement of the oil. Falling equities and lower oil are going in favor of the trade.
Since there is plenty of good news out of Canada, it looks like a safer bet to short NOK/JPY than CAD/JPY

AUD/CHF (-63)

with the recent developments of Greek and Portuguese bonds marking record highs with their German counterpart, all risk & commodities currencies are taking a hit. Last few days copper was marking lower numbers and with combination of falling equities AUD can sustain substantial losses. CHF looks like the bet with smallest stop and biggest profit if risk is to stay at least for a few days. U.S. equities are indicating lower opening what should serve our trade. MACD indicator shows the clearest cases of previous divergences and their results. Stops should be placed above recent highs and targets should start at 0.9750 or at/about 50 simple moving average.

EUR/NOK (-172 pip value 0.14, actual -29)

with the recent retreat of oil from 87.09 highs pair stalled it's continued advance. Euro is still on hold for the "solution for Greece" despite some of the excellent data coming out of the German powerhouse (German ZEW Econ. Sentiment 53.0 vs. expected 45.2)
Aside from that Slow Stochastic and RSI (not displayed because of clarity of graph)are indicating on the divergence on the price. Stops should start bellow it's recent low's of 7.9313, and targets should start at 7.9950 and higher if Euro gains momentum and oil remains under pressure.

USD/JPY (-30)

with strong numbers for USD from Housing Starts 0.63M vs. 0.6 expected and Building permits 0.69M vs 0.63M expected dollar is starting to mark gains on USDX index. USD/JPY made a double bottom and "cemented" the floor so it is ready for the move up, with low risk in case of a failure. RSI indicator is marking a divergence in a price and giving us signal to initiate long position. Support comes in at about 92.57 and recent lows are just bellow that. Stops should be placed bellow 92.45 and targets should start 93.20. University of Michigan consumer sentiment at due at 9:55 E.T. and are expected to be positive 74.7 vs 73.6 so it should provide additional wind for the move higher from fundamental side.

USD/CHF (-60)

with the latest news for USD unemployment claims disappointing for a second week (484 actual vs 439 expected)it sent the USDX (dollar index)lower. Manufacturing index showed positive result, but market did not account for that all that much. Pair is in downtrend since beginning of march, and with the first news for CHF this week (which are expected to be positive) we could expect continuation of the trend. There is much more data to come for USD, but the bias is that unemployment claims are going to weigh on the USD. 1.0616 serves as a resistance (April 12 High), and in addition to it 38.2 FIB. retracement is placed at 1.0612 from the move (1.0897 - 1.0434)FIB retracement is not placed on the chart because of clarity. Stops should be placed above 20 simple moving average which is at 1.0622 and targets should bellow 1.0525

EUR/JPY (+63)

recent data from Europe on industrial production showed us positive numbers in relation to expectation,(0.2% expected, actual 0.9%) but still it is less than previous month 1.7%. Euro might extend gain towards high 127's, and it gives good opportunity for a short position with low risk (small stop) trade. Last week high is at 127.90, so this can serve as a resistance and possible target for profit takers, pair was in uptrend since April 8th. Divergence is confirmed with MACD as well, but this indicator is not displayed because of clarity of the chart. Stops should be placed above highs from beginning of April 127.90, and targets should start bellow 127.00. Trailing stop could be good idea in case of this particular trade.
It is noticeable that Euro is recording bigger gains on JPY than on USD, and to keep in mind that any revaluation of Yuan from China would provide strength in JPY.

NOK/SEK (+110 pip value 0.14 actual +16)

with the oil dropping in a recent few days steadily, we could count on some weakness in commodity currencies connected to oil (CAD, NOK). Pair is confronting two retracements on weekly chrt 38.2% retracement from 1.0708 - 1.3173) and 38.2% as well from (1.3173 - 1.1607) We can see on 8h chart that pair is trading right bellow 200SMA. Entry in this trade could rather be difficult, or rather the timing of it, because if we look more carefully we could argue that there is inverse head & shoulders pattern, what would be clearly bullish sign. Taken this into consideration it might be a better strategy to sell possible spikes above 200 SMA. Stops should start clearly above 200 SMA, and targets placement should start bellow 1.2100

AUD/USD (-50)

with the pair hitting 100 simple moving average and daily support trend line, there is opportunity to enter fresh longs. With the start of the week we could expect markets to buy risk and commodities. Gold is already making progress as well as oil, both of these signs are for the risk appetite, what should support long position on aud/usd. Recent fundamental news support this trade (Australian rate hike) Stops should be placed bellow 0.9250 and profit targets should start above 94.00

GBP/USD (-66)

for a couple of days GBP has failed to break downtrend & consolidation pattern that is taking place since April 1st. There was no lack of good news for the GBP lately (Construction PMI, Halifax, Manufacturing production), but dispite good news traders did not take pair above 1.5300. Even unemployment claims rise of 18k did not help GBP to break out. This is the evidence of strong pressure on a pair,and from technical perspective pair is on 21.6 fib. retracement as well as on 50 SMA resistance line. Trade is has good risk to reward ratio in case on another failure to break topside. Stops to start at 1.5350, and profit targets should be placed from 1.5150 and bellow.

CAD/CHF (+116)

it is obvious that CAD closely tracks oil performance on the market, and since yesterday oil started retreating from it's recent highs. Since US markets close lower yesterday, Asian and European markets followed, and commoditie currencies (AUD,CAD,NZD) tracked lower. Currently CHF stands the most chances to gain from technical perspective. CHF gains could be attributed to profit taking on long position of CAD/CHF, or simply flight to safety of CHF. On a weekly, and monthly chart resistance of 1.0700 is clearly visible, so some profit taking action is expected at this level. RSI divergence is supportive technical indicator for a trade. CAD strength is evident in recent months across the board, so extra caution is advised. Currently oil is the strongest indicator for the pair movement. Stops should be placed above recent highs. 1.0735 and targets should start at 1.0600 and bellow.