AUD/NZD +203

recent news did not go in favor of Aussie. Currency dropped on all fronts, and for a reason (building approvals, trade balance), but positive facts should not be forgotten. New Zeland trade was not great either :) This is the fifth week that this pair is taking a beating, and it might be some more to come, but by no means in such fashion as it was up to this point. If you look at thmonthly chart it is even more evident. Chart is telling us to buy at this level 1.2378 and put stops at 1.2375, with a target at 1.2780. We expect Slow Stochastic to cross, and support trend line to hold, in worst case scenario, but moving average should hold too (not to close below)

AUD/USD +236

technical aspects of this trade are indicating toping out of this pair. Slow stochastic is showing diversion on daily chart, and weekly chart is about to cross, what are the indicators of change in direction. Pattern of the candles is also indicating exhaustion of the trend, daily & weekly.
US dollar index is showing signs of bottoming out on a daily chart (around 79).
This particular trade is based on technical position of the pair. Yes, we know that tomorrow we have employment data, non-farm, ISM and retail sales for AUD next week, but despite these unknowns, we are going in. Why would we do this. It is simple. We believe that we are going to make $$$. :-)

EUR/USD +365

reasons for this trade are the same like in the previous. Yes, we were proven wrong on timing of this trade (evidently), but we still believe that we have correnct prediction. We call for rebound, (rather than rise) of the Euro. During next week and maybe untill the end of the month, we should hit our targets. Yes, we looked at US employment data, and we don't believe that 200k on jobs report is a game changer.
On the technical side, just look at the Slow Stochastic.

EUR/USD -154

one should almost expect sudden moves on the currency market in this time of the year. In this pair it looks like the good buying opportunity. There is no point to explain every move on the market, but general picture, for a right now, is showing that this pair have room to "grow".
Last week candle showed market unwillingness to go lower. This week, so far, added more undecidedness to it, and current drop gives a great chance for buying. It is just what we would like for christmass :)
Bellow the current levels lies 23.6 fib support at 1.2840 (1.1881-1.6026), and it should hold, in case that things go "south". Core of the trade is based on the belief that market is currently not willing to sell more euro, but is waiting for the next news or a reason to buy more euro, what we believe that is coming. When markets are wishing for something they usually get it, and now market is waiting, wanting, wishing, for a good news.

Happy New year to everybody from OctagonFX

CHF/JPY +138

by know everybody knows that JPY is just getting stronger and stronger. When we have "flight to safety" in currency world, that means that people are selling AUD, CAD, NZD, GBP, and EUR, and buying JPY, USD, and CHF. In this case we have battle of the two "safety nets". Both central banks are saying that their currency is too strong and that will have an effect on their economy. They might be right, but that will not stop traders from buying their currency. Both of the central banks tried and experienced the pain of intervention on the currency market that did not lead them anywhere. To make this short; JPY is overboght on so many levels, and we have some what of Risk-on on the market. Technical aspect will help our trade, but needles to say that we have to keep an eye on market developments, cause things get get ugly "in a jiffy" :)

CAD/JPY +115

new lows are reached on this pair 72.13, and some would say "why would you try to catch falling knife"? Well, there is several reasons for it. Of course that we know that market is selling off risk (CAD), and buying safety (JPY). On top of everything oil is reaching new lows,S&P & Dow are also reaching new lows. This trade is based on premise that people are going to stop and think very carefully about selling more than this level on many markets, even if the news that is coming out is not all that great. That would in our opinion open door for much lower levels, and our trade would be liquidated in a "jiffy":)
If markets stop and think about it before make the next move, our trade makes perfect sense. It would make a great profit if someting good happens on the market. After all, even the selling has it's stoping point.
Slow Stochastic looks tired from pointing lower :)
Stops are placed at 71.60 and target is 73.40

AUD/USD +260

USD made a huge run in recent weeks, from low seventies to high seventies, where it is currently. At the same time AUD did it in opposite direction, as the markets were selling off. Pair is on the support line that seems very strong, and we think that would take a lot of global selling in order to go bellow. As many are predicting high volatility of the market we think that this is the time to buy, and look for the upswing in global markets where buying will take place, before the end of the year. Reason for fear and worry is always there, but so is the hope and desire to make money. Technically we think that this is the good spot for the purchase of the currency leader when market is on the upswing, and of course we expect that news from China and asian markets surprise on the positive. Target can easily moved to a much higher point than 1.000, but we will play it a bit conservative at this moment. We will cut the trade bellow 0.9600

EUR/CHF +433

On previous entry we got stopped out, and that is negative. On a positive side is that we have even better entry point, because we still believe that exchange rate between EUR and CHF is far too low to survive at current environment. Imagine how it feels to Swisss businesses that just year ago had exchange rate as high as 1.42. We believe that market is going to bounce back.
Stops @ 1.1720, and profit target 1.2380.

EUR/CHF (-15)

with the euro is getting it from all sides, particularly from it's neighbor CHF, we think that there is a limit how much currency can slide in certain period of time. Needles to say that key is in resolution of many problems is in Greece. In case of further detoriation we think that selloff will continue but at much slower pace, and in case of any impovements we going to see knee jerk reaction in this pair.
Stops are placed at 1.1770, and targets are set at 1.2380
Stop adjusted to 1.1940, just bellow entry. Caution ahead of Greek confidence vote.

EUR/GBP (-114)

with the recent Euro advances coming to a stop, it is time to take a short with the GBP, and the main reason for that is expectations of the BOE to raise rates before ECB. Recent developments in Euro zone area do not go in favor of Euro ( Portuguese downgrade, after Spain, and Ireland), and inflation in England is much higher than some of it's members would like it. From technical perspective the pair is just on multi-week resistance trendline at 0.08790. Close above this level on the weekly chart could open the door to further advancements, but with fundamental factors trend-line resistance should hold, and more downward pressure should be come in April. Stops are placed at 0.8980 and above, and target should be placed at 0.8615, and bellow.

USD/CAD -80

recent moves in oil added strength to CAD what moved the pair to about 0.9820. Oil move was dramatic (from high $80's to just above $100) and this pair did not gain as much, and the reason for that is that market participants that Canadian dollar is just getting too strong. Members of Royal Bank of Canada are getting very concerned about currency strength, because it might hurt recovery that is taking place in Canada. With strong currency BOC has no need to raise interest rate, and we think that market is realizing that. In the case of more turmoil USD is still the safest bet, so we will go long at 0.9820. Divergence is clear on daily chart and we should target 50 simple moving average as the first target.
Market had many excuses to push this pair lower, but decided to pass on it. In case of stabilization in Libya, we expect strong move up, and sharp drop (profit taking) in oil, as well as in CAD.

EUR/CHF (+388)

with the Euro in the downfall against many of the currencies, it is entering oversold levels. On the monthly chart, it is about 1500 pips bellow it's lowest levels since 1995. Since there are no significant shifts between two economies, but credit rating downgrade, we think that sentiment will shift just like it did on previous cases, and profit taking is going to help the rebound of the currency. On the previous monthly candles, it is evident that there is strong rebound on each bearish candle. We very well might add on further gains of the CHF in this year
Besides candles we can see strong divergence of the RSI indicator and price, what indicates move higher.
Stops are placed at 1.2340 and profit targets are set at 1.2840, and above.

EUR/CAD (+162)

euro is expected to make moves lower as the worries about stability in europe continue to make headlines. Uncertainty about Ireland need/not need help, will drag the Euro lower, and CAD is expected to continue with progress. Without major news for this week, accept for Tuesday German ZEW Econ. sentiment, headlines, and equity moves will continue to affect the pair on the downside. On technical side 100sma is crossing over 200 sma what is bearish signal, and RSI is marking lower highs. Stop is placed at 1.3915, and target is placed at 1.3680 and lower.

USD/JPY (-48)

moves in USD are still dictating the trades as we approach the G 20 meeting, and risk appetite was on a decline on the back of declining prices of oil, and weaker gold. Pair was showing stabilization bellow 82.00 level what is telling us that the market participants are not ready to start taking profits because they expect further decline in USD and more JPY gains. For the ones that believe this it is an excellent opportunity to start a new short with stops at 82.20, and target at 80.70, and then 79.80.

GBP/JPY -56

with the another negative news for GBP (CBI realized sales 36 vs. 49 previous), we can assume further decline of GBP, despite positive prelimianry GDP suprise yesterday (0.8% vs. 1.2 previous). BoJ press conference did not do much for the JPY so we can assume again that JPY strength is in days to come, at least towards US elections & FED meeting. Price actions seems trapped between two simple moving averages (50 & 100), so we will be careful on bounce of those limits. Slow Stochastic are in line with our projections. Stops are placed above most recent high 128.40, and target is at 127.70.

EUR/JPY (-10)

move lower on the chart before euro open, is lead of the JPY gains, and not euro weakness. Euro is holding it's ground against other currencies, and besides USD is showing some kind of weakness. Equity markets are about leveled, and indication for US open are on/about zero level. Data from US has mixed expectations, and later on in the day, BoJ has a monitory policy statement where they could purchase another trillion JPY of corporate bonds to reduce strength of JPY. We don't believe market is going to drive JPY any stronger besides these levels, and we could see some decent gains on this pair, especially if equity markets show gains. Trend line support is obvious, and we are going to place the stop bellow recent swing low 112.30, and target at 113.50, and then 114.50. Pay attention on reaction to 200 sma at 113.11

AUD/USD (-48)

with the positive news for the U.S. it is expected that market will jump on it with more buying. Since everybody is buying on the account that FED will pump more money in the system, risk is suppose to increase, and the purchase of AUD (and probably NZD & CAD too).There is clear support with 100 sma, and stops are placed at 0.9880, and target is 1.0020

EUR/USD -18

oversold and overbought levels of bought currencies, EUR and USD. It is said that pairs reverse, when everybody is on one side of the trade, and we think that is happening now with eur/usd. Stops are 1.4135, and target 1.4005

EUR/USD -63

with several weeks of continued gains in euro, it is not strange to consider it "overbought".USD index (DXY) is in the same position, since euro is largest part of DXY, 57% of it. Since Q.E.is expected, and according to some it is already priced in for a while now. Since FOMC minutes did shock anybody, it is to be expected that some form of consolidation takes place, and EUR/USD to pull back. Profit taking is likely, and next step is to figure out how much Q.E. is FED thinking about. That should be the topic of the media until November, together with the elections. Divergence on rsi is technical indication of pullback in the rally of 14 cents=1.400 pips. Stop is placed at 1.4055, and target is 1.3755 and maybe 1.3650. We need to be mindful of the spikes, after all, this is a very big rally.

GBP/AUD (-45)

gbp jumped higher on a positive news (finally)Construction PMI 53.8 vs. 52.1 If we put this news in the context with previous data releases and with some of the speeches of BOE, like Adam Posen, we should expect no big rally in GBP, except maybe against USD. Today is the day for plethora of data for Aussie, AIG service index, retail sales, trade balance and most importantly is rate decision and RBA statement later in the day. Nothing is more important than rate decision, and market is having some doubts about rate hike from Australians, but good numbers from China last week and hawkish stance of RBA just might do it, and make it 4.75%. We don't think that buying of GBP will continue or selling of the AUD at this point, and see no reason for it on a day like this, but we see more chances of the opposite. Data releases ahead the rate decision should give small clue about the RBA decision, and our position in the trade at that time. Stops are above 50 sma and 38.2% fib. at 1.6440 and target 1.6250 and bellow if RBA hikes rates.