GBP/AUD (-45)

gbp jumped higher on a positive news (finally)Construction PMI 53.8 vs. 52.1 If we put this news in the context with previous data releases and with some of the speeches of BOE, like Adam Posen, we should expect no big rally in GBP, except maybe against USD. Today is the day for plethora of data for Aussie, AIG service index, retail sales, trade balance and most importantly is rate decision and RBA statement later in the day. Nothing is more important than rate decision, and market is having some doubts about rate hike from Australians, but good numbers from China last week and hawkish stance of RBA just might do it, and make it 4.75%. We don't think that buying of GBP will continue or selling of the AUD at this point, and see no reason for it on a day like this, but we see more chances of the opposite. Data releases ahead the rate decision should give small clue about the RBA decision, and our position in the trade at that time. Stops are above 50 sma and 38.2% fib. at 1.6440 and target 1.6250 and bellow if RBA hikes rates.