GBP/JPY -56

with the another negative news for GBP (CBI realized sales 36 vs. 49 previous), we can assume further decline of GBP, despite positive prelimianry GDP suprise yesterday (0.8% vs. 1.2 previous). BoJ press conference did not do much for the JPY so we can assume again that JPY strength is in days to come, at least towards US elections & FED meeting. Price actions seems trapped between two simple moving averages (50 & 100), so we will be careful on bounce of those limits. Slow Stochastic are in line with our projections. Stops are placed above most recent high 128.40, and target is at 127.70.

EUR/JPY (-10)

move lower on the chart before euro open, is lead of the JPY gains, and not euro weakness. Euro is holding it's ground against other currencies, and besides USD is showing some kind of weakness. Equity markets are about leveled, and indication for US open are on/about zero level. Data from US has mixed expectations, and later on in the day, BoJ has a monitory policy statement where they could purchase another trillion JPY of corporate bonds to reduce strength of JPY. We don't believe market is going to drive JPY any stronger besides these levels, and we could see some decent gains on this pair, especially if equity markets show gains. Trend line support is obvious, and we are going to place the stop bellow recent swing low 112.30, and target at 113.50, and then 114.50. Pay attention on reaction to 200 sma at 113.11

AUD/USD (-48)

with the positive news for the U.S. it is expected that market will jump on it with more buying. Since everybody is buying on the account that FED will pump more money in the system, risk is suppose to increase, and the purchase of AUD (and probably NZD & CAD too).There is clear support with 100 sma, and stops are placed at 0.9880, and target is 1.0020

EUR/USD -18

oversold and overbought levels of bought currencies, EUR and USD. It is said that pairs reverse, when everybody is on one side of the trade, and we think that is happening now with eur/usd. Stops are 1.4135, and target 1.4005

EUR/USD -63

with several weeks of continued gains in euro, it is not strange to consider it "overbought".USD index (DXY) is in the same position, since euro is largest part of DXY, 57% of it. Since Q.E.is expected, and according to some it is already priced in for a while now. Since FOMC minutes did shock anybody, it is to be expected that some form of consolidation takes place, and EUR/USD to pull back. Profit taking is likely, and next step is to figure out how much Q.E. is FED thinking about. That should be the topic of the media until November, together with the elections. Divergence on rsi is technical indication of pullback in the rally of 14 cents=1.400 pips. Stop is placed at 1.4055, and target is 1.3755 and maybe 1.3650. We need to be mindful of the spikes, after all, this is a very big rally.

GBP/AUD (-45)

gbp jumped higher on a positive news (finally)Construction PMI 53.8 vs. 52.1 If we put this news in the context with previous data releases and with some of the speeches of BOE, like Adam Posen, we should expect no big rally in GBP, except maybe against USD. Today is the day for plethora of data for Aussie, AIG service index, retail sales, trade balance and most importantly is rate decision and RBA statement later in the day. Nothing is more important than rate decision, and market is having some doubts about rate hike from Australians, but good numbers from China last week and hawkish stance of RBA just might do it, and make it 4.75%. We don't think that buying of GBP will continue or selling of the AUD at this point, and see no reason for it on a day like this, but we see more chances of the opposite. Data releases ahead the rate decision should give small clue about the RBA decision, and our position in the trade at that time. Stops are above 50 sma and 38.2% fib. at 1.6440 and target 1.6250 and bellow if RBA hikes rates.