new lows are reached on this pair 72.13, and some would say "why would you try to catch falling knife"? Well, there is several reasons for it. Of course that we know that market is selling off risk (CAD), and buying safety (JPY). On top of everything oil is reaching new lows,S&P & Dow are also reaching new lows. This trade is based on premise that people are going to stop and think very carefully about selling more than this level on many markets, even if the news that is coming out is not all that great. That would in our opinion open door for much lower levels, and our trade would be liquidated in a "jiffy":)
If markets stop and think about it before make the next move, our trade makes perfect sense. It would make a great profit if someting good happens on the market. After all, even the selling has it's stoping point.
Slow Stochastic looks tired from pointing lower :)
Stops are placed at 71.60 and target is 73.40
TRADING FOREX MARKET
The fact is that pattern exist is evidence of price manipulation, which in turn creates predictability that produces profitability for those who can see the patterns.
Greggory L. Morris
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Monday, September 26, 2011
AUD/USD +260

USD made a huge run in recent weeks, from low seventies to high seventies, where it is currently. At the same time AUD did it in opposite direction, as the markets were selling off. Pair is on the support line that seems very strong, and we think that would take a lot of global selling in order to go bellow. As many are predicting high volatility of the market we think that this is the time to buy, and look for the upswing in global markets where buying will take place, before the end of the year. Reason for fear and worry is always there, but so is the hope and desire to make money. Technically we think that this is the good spot for the purchase of the currency leader when market is on the upswing, and of course we expect that news from China and asian markets surprise on the positive. Target can easily moved to a much higher point than 1.000, but we will play it a bit conservative at this moment. We will cut the trade bellow 0.9600
Thursday, June 23, 2011
EUR/CHF +433

On previous entry we got stopped out, and that is negative. On a positive side is that we have even better entry point, because we still believe that exchange rate between EUR and CHF is far too low to survive at current environment. Imagine how it feels to Swisss businesses that just year ago had exchange rate as high as 1.42. We believe that market is going to bounce back.
Stops @ 1.1720, and profit target 1.2380.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
EUR/CHF (-15)

with the euro is getting it from all sides, particularly from it's neighbor CHF, we think that there is a limit how much currency can slide in certain period of time. Needles to say that key is in resolution of many problems is in Greece. In case of further detoriation we think that selloff will continue but at much slower pace, and in case of any impovements we going to see knee jerk reaction in this pair.
Stops are placed at 1.1770, and targets are set at 1.2380
Stop adjusted to 1.1940, just bellow entry. Caution ahead of Greek confidence vote.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
EUR/GBP (-114)

with the recent Euro advances coming to a stop, it is time to take a short with the GBP, and the main reason for that is expectations of the BOE to raise rates before ECB. Recent developments in Euro zone area do not go in favor of Euro ( Portuguese downgrade, after Spain, and Ireland), and inflation in England is much higher than some of it's members would like it. From technical perspective the pair is just on multi-week resistance trendline at 0.08790. Close above this level on the weekly chart could open the door to further advancements, but with fundamental factors trend-line resistance should hold, and more downward pressure should be come in April. Stops are placed at 0.8980 and above, and target should be placed at 0.8615, and bellow.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
USD/CAD -80

recent moves in oil added strength to CAD what moved the pair to about 0.9820. Oil move was dramatic (from high $80's to just above $100) and this pair did not gain as much, and the reason for that is that market participants that Canadian dollar is just getting too strong. Members of Royal Bank of Canada are getting very concerned about currency strength, because it might hurt recovery that is taking place in Canada. With strong currency BOC has no need to raise interest rate, and we think that market is realizing that. In the case of more turmoil USD is still the safest bet, so we will go long at 0.9820. Divergence is clear on daily chart and we should target 50 simple moving average as the first target.
Market had many excuses to push this pair lower, but decided to pass on it. In case of stabilization in Libya, we expect strong move up, and sharp drop (profit taking) in oil, as well as in CAD.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
EUR/CHF (+388)

with the Euro in the downfall against many of the currencies, it is entering oversold levels. On the monthly chart, it is about 1500 pips bellow it's lowest levels since 1995. Since there are no significant shifts between two economies, but credit rating downgrade, we think that sentiment will shift just like it did on previous cases, and profit taking is going to help the rebound of the currency. On the previous monthly candles, it is evident that there is strong rebound on each bearish candle. We very well might add on further gains of the CHF in this year
Besides candles we can see strong divergence of the RSI indicator and price, what indicates move higher.
Stops are placed at 1.2340 and profit targets are set at 1.2840, and above.
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