2010 profit + 1179, 2011 + 971

2010 January +236, February +22, March +190, April +198, May +607, June +63, July 0, August -50, September +62, October -240, November +114, December 0,


2011 January +388, February - 80, March 0, April -114, May 0, June -15, July +433, August 0, September +260, October +253, December -154


2012 January +365, February 0, March +236, April +203, May 0, June 0, July





TRADING FOREX MARKET

The fact is that pattern exist is evidence of price manipulation, which in turn creates predictability that produces profitability for those who can see the patterns.

Greggory L. Morris

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

EUR/NOK (-172 pip value 0.14, actual -29)


with the recent retreat of oil from 87.09 highs pair stalled it's continued advance. Euro is still on hold for the "solution for Greece" despite some of the excellent data coming out of the German powerhouse (German ZEW Econ. Sentiment 53.0 vs. expected 45.2)
Aside from that Slow Stochastic and RSI (not displayed because of clarity of graph)are indicating on the divergence on the price. Stops should start bellow it's recent low's of 7.9313, and targets should start at 7.9950 and higher if Euro gains momentum and oil remains under pressure.

Friday, April 16, 2010

USD/JPY (-30)


with strong numbers for USD from Housing Starts 0.63M vs. 0.6 expected and Building permits 0.69M vs 0.63M expected dollar is starting to mark gains on USDX index. USD/JPY made a double bottom and "cemented" the floor so it is ready for the move up, with low risk in case of a failure. RSI indicator is marking a divergence in a price and giving us signal to initiate long position. Support comes in at about 92.57 and recent lows are just bellow that. Stops should be placed bellow 92.45 and targets should start 93.20. University of Michigan consumer sentiment at due at 9:55 E.T. and are expected to be positive 74.7 vs 73.6 so it should provide additional wind for the move higher from fundamental side.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

USD/CHF (-60)


with the latest news for USD unemployment claims disappointing for a second week (484 actual vs 439 expected)it sent the USDX (dollar index)lower. Manufacturing index showed positive result, but market did not account for that all that much. Pair is in downtrend since beginning of march, and with the first news for CHF this week (which are expected to be positive) we could expect continuation of the trend. There is much more data to come for USD, but the bias is that unemployment claims are going to weigh on the USD. 1.0616 serves as a resistance (April 12 High), and in addition to it 38.2 FIB. retracement is placed at 1.0612 from the move (1.0897 - 1.0434)FIB retracement is not placed on the chart because of clarity. Stops should be placed above 20 simple moving average which is at 1.0622 and targets should bellow 1.0525

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

EUR/JPY (+63)


recent data from Europe on industrial production showed us positive numbers in relation to expectation,(0.2% expected, actual 0.9%) but still it is less than previous month 1.7%. Euro might extend gain towards high 127's, and it gives good opportunity for a short position with low risk (small stop) trade. Last week high is at 127.90, so this can serve as a resistance and possible target for profit takers, pair was in uptrend since April 8th. Divergence is confirmed with MACD as well, but this indicator is not displayed because of clarity of the chart. Stops should be placed above highs from beginning of April 127.90, and targets should start bellow 127.00. Trailing stop could be good idea in case of this particular trade.
It is noticeable that Euro is recording bigger gains on JPY than on USD, and to keep in mind that any revaluation of Yuan from China would provide strength in JPY.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

NOK/SEK (+110 pip value 0.14 actual +16)


with the oil dropping in a recent few days steadily, we could count on some weakness in commodity currencies connected to oil (CAD, NOK). Pair is confronting two retracements on weekly chrt 38.2% retracement from 1.0708 - 1.3173) and 38.2% as well from (1.3173 - 1.1607) We can see on 8h chart that pair is trading right bellow 200SMA. Entry in this trade could rather be difficult, or rather the timing of it, because if we look more carefully we could argue that there is inverse head & shoulders pattern, what would be clearly bullish sign. Taken this into consideration it might be a better strategy to sell possible spikes above 200 SMA. Stops should start clearly above 200 SMA, and targets placement should start bellow 1.2100

Monday, April 12, 2010

AUD/USD (-50)


with the pair hitting 100 simple moving average and daily support trend line, there is opportunity to enter fresh longs. With the start of the week we could expect markets to buy risk and commodities. Gold is already making progress as well as oil, both of these signs are for the risk appetite, what should support long position on aud/usd. Recent fundamental news support this trade (Australian rate hike) Stops should be placed bellow 0.9250 and profit targets should start above 94.00

Thursday, April 8, 2010

GBP/USD (-66)


for a couple of days GBP has failed to break downtrend & consolidation pattern that is taking place since April 1st. There was no lack of good news for the GBP lately (Construction PMI, Halifax, Manufacturing production), but dispite good news traders did not take pair above 1.5300. Even unemployment claims rise of 18k did not help GBP to break out. This is the evidence of strong pressure on a pair,and from technical perspective pair is on 21.6 fib. retracement as well as on 50 SMA resistance line. Trade is has good risk to reward ratio in case on another failure to break topside. Stops to start at 1.5350, and profit targets should be placed from 1.5150 and bellow.