EUR/JPY (-45)

recent bounce in EUR across the board on the month end considerations, and there is many obstacles that lie ahead of this pair. Risk aversion would be a major obstacles, and losses on European markets and negative indication on the US opening are going in favor of our trade. Japanese intervention in FX markets is not worry at all. US data lies ahead, but it is not expected to be in positive camp, and EUR/JPY would be the pair to short if that is the case.

GBP/USD (-54)

with the US market making new gains of about 1.2% charts look set up for some further gains in today and tomorrow trading day. Asian markets are about to open, and they are as well set up for some gains. Nikkei 225 last two days opened with the losses of about 1-1.5% but quickly retraced to much smaller losses. Following the raise in the risk appetite in Europe, and US we believe that risk appetite will give lift off to GBP/USD. Pair is hammering out the bottom in and about 1.5540-70 level, and on the down side it is supported by daily trend line and fib.@1.5577, 23.6% (1.5994 - 1.4459)Slow Stochastic are pointing for the move higher.
Stop is placed at 1.5520 what is bellow recent lows, and target for the top side is 1.5695. Tomorrow (aug.18)we will have release of MPC meeting minutes what should provide more light for the cable direction.

USD/JPY (+70)

surprise rally of the JPY on the opening of the US market, caught off guard many traders. Indecies opened 1-1.5% lower, and JPY went south, but AUD went north. After so much disappointing data in a last couple of days that did not stop yet, we see no reason for the move higher is USD/JPY. Just as a caution for the "japan intervention" stops are placed @ 87.05, and targets are @83.80 Trend line serves as a clear resistance, and RSI indicator is showing that there is gradual decline in USD/JPY. Pressure on the JPY is enormous and solutions are not in FX intervention, and Japan is well aware of it.

EUR/CHF (-25)

technical set-up of divergence is clear in this pair, and it is shown that in previous cases it worked very well. As it is known that EUR is bought on risk appetite, and CHF on risk aversion, among other things, this set-up looks like great opportunity to enter the trade ahead of FOMC meeting at 18:15 GMT. RSI is downward slope is indicating lack of buyers for this pair, and dumping of the EUR is about to start. Euro markets are mostly down -0.5%, and U.S. are indicating lower opening S&P -0.7% and DJ -0.6%. In addition, Fib retracement of 21.6% what is at1.3883 is from the move (1.6827 - 1.3072), and serves as additional resistance for a move higher. Stops are set @1.3910, and target is @ 1.3480

USD/CAD (-35)

recent market moves give a boost to USD and USD index, and in case of CAD picked it up to a point of strong resistance. On a daily chart 100 SMA serves as support and as a resistance, and we are going to use it as a resistance, in addition to downward sloping trend line (best seen on lower time frames 1,2, and 4h time frames). Oil still looks firm above $80, currently @ $81.22, and provides a support to strong CAD. Recent jobs data moved CAD to a position where it is now, but we believe that market is going to move past it, once oil firms up in $80 level. Tomorrow FOMC statement can toss all trades out the window, so extreme caution goes without saying, possibly exiting the trade before the release. CAD news release of housing start and NHPI is at 12:15 & 12:30 GMT, Aug 10. Positive data goes in favor of our trade. Stops are placed at 1.0325 and target 1.0160

USD/JPY +100

it looks like the JPY is making another floor at 85.50 ish level, and from technical perspective it seems like good opportunity for long position. In recent days USD is showing oversold indication, just like the JPY is showing the signs of overbought levels. Divergence on daily chart is reflecting clear signs of divergence on RSI, and move towards the resistance Trend Line. 200 SMA is 500 pips away from its current price. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & ISM Non Manufacturing are due to come out in couple of hours and positive results from those two indicators would definitely go in favor of our trade. Recent down moves of the JPY are not as strong, and we are betting on rebound from current levels. Stops are placed at 84.88, and target set for 86.88 and higher in case of positive ISM. Number that everybody is waiting for and calculating positions before its release is employment data on Friday.

GBP/CHF - 71

recent gains in GBP are evident all over the forex market, but shortly after the European GBP counted small pullback after construction PMI came much lower than expected (54.1 vs. 58.2 expected). Shortly after the best that GBP bulls could do is to put it back on the mark from where it retreated from, across the board. It seems like that much of the GBP good news has already been priced inn, so not even the considerably lower than expected Construction PMI can bring it down. On GBP/CHF it is evident that buyers did not want to push it higher than 200 SMA, although some of them tried, but rally stalled, and market participants are looking for new inspiration. Plenty of data for the GBP is underway, with major news coming out on Thursday, MPC rate statement. Nobody is really expecting that rate will change, but everybody is wanting to hear the statement. Trade is assuming that many of the good news has already been priced inn, and that some will start exiting GBP longs ahead of policy decision. In case of risk aversion and falling equities, CHF will get it's fair share and that will go in favor of our trade. Stops are placed at 1.6608 and target is set at 1.6408, but in case of stronger pulback and more negative news for the GBP, target 2 will be placed at 1.6328.
As it was mentioned in the beginning, GBP is showing strength across the FX market, so move to the upside should not be a surprise.